An MCDM Approach for Evaluating Construction-Related Risks using a Combined Fuzzy Grey DEMATEL Method
Received: 24 January 2024 | Revised: 9 February 2024 | Accepted: 14 February 2024 | Online: 2 April 2024
Corresponding author: Rana Jabbar Kasid Jalhoom
Abstract
There is a need for more research into prioritizing project risks based on a sound technique due to the complicated and disorganized character of this stage. The project risk management process typically begins with the identification of critical hazards. This study presents a Grey Fuzzy Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (FGDEMATEL) approach to prioritize potential causes of project risks within Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM). This framework organizes the numerous risks using the Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS) of the Project Management Institute (PMI). The risk information used in this analysis comes mostly from the views and choices of project experts. Grey theory, which takes language phrases for preference collections and translates them into numerical intervals, is responsible for controlling uncertainty and variance in experts' preferences. As each expert has unique skills and experiences, it evaluates the significance of their opinions using a fuzzy number system that incorporates three dimensions. In the end, the FGDEMATEL approach devised a method to rank various project risks.
Keywords:
fuzzy logic, project risk management, grey system theory, DEMATELDownloads
References
M. Askari and H. R. Shokrizade, "An Integrated Method for Ranking of Risk in BOT Projects," Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, vol. 109, pp. 1390–1394, Jan. 2014.
R. M. Wideman, Project and Program Risk Management: A Guide to Managing Project Risks and Opportunities. Drexel Hill, PA, USA: Project Management Institute, 1992.
B. Carter, T. Hancock, J.-M. Morin, and N. Robins, Introducing Riskman: The European Project Risk Management Methodology. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Pub, 1994.
R. J. Chapman, "The effectiveness of working group risk identification and assessment techniques," International Journal of Project Management, vol. 16, no. 6, pp. 333–343, Dec. 1998.
A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK guide), Fifth edition. Newtown Square, PA, USA: Project Management Institute, 2013.
A. A. Alfahad and A. M. Burhan, "BIM-Supporting System by Integrating Risk Management and Value Management," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 13, no. 6, pp. 12130–12137, Dec. 2023.
S. H. N. Alani and A. M. R. Mahjoob, "Corruption Risk Analysis at the Project Planning Stage in the Iraqi Construction Sector using the Bowtie Methodology," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 7223–7227, Jun. 2021.
A. Alameri, A. S. A. M. Alhammadi, A. H. Memon, I. A. Rahman, and N. A. N. Nasaruddin, "Assessing the Risk Level of the Challenges Faced In Construction Projects," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 7152–7157, Jun. 2021.
S. M. A. K. Firouzabadi and A. V. Nikjoo, "Ranking Of Project Risks Based on the PMBOK Standard by Fuzzy Dematel," in Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Manufacturing Research ICMR 2012, 2012.
E. K. Zavadskas, Z. Turskis, and J. Tamošaitiene, "Risk assessment of construction projects," Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 33–46, Jan. 2010.
A. Yazdani-Chamzini, S. H. Yakhchali, and M. Mahmoodian, "Risk ranking of tunnel construction projects by using the ELECTRE technique under a fuzzy environment," International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 1–14, Feb. 2013.
A. S. Bu-Qammaz, I. Dikmen, and M. T. Birgonul, "Risk assessment of international construction projects using the analytic network process," Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering, vol. 36, no. 7, pp. 1170–1181, Jul. 2009.
S. Ebrahimnejad, S. M. Mousavi, R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, and M. Heydar, "Risk ranking in mega projects by fuzzy compromise approach: A comparative analysis," Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems, vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 949–959, Jan. 2014.
S. Ebrahimnejad, S. M. Mousavi, and S. M. H. Mojtahedi, "A fuzzy decision-making model for risk ranking with an application to an onshore gas refinery," International Journal of Business Continuity and Risk Management, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 38–66, Jan. 2009.
N. V. Thuyet, S. O. Ogunlana, and P. K. Dey, Risk management in oil and gas construction projects in Vietnam. Routledge, 2019.
S. Q. Wang, M. F. Dulaimi, and M. Y. Aguria, "Risk management framework for construction projects in developing countries," Construction Management and Economics, vol. 22, no. 3, pp. 237–252, Mar. 2004.
J. H. M. Tah and V. Carr, "A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic," Construction Management and Economics, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 491–500, Jun. 2000.
R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, S. M. Mousavi, and H. Hashemi, "A fuzzy comprehensive approach for risk identification and prioritization simultaneously in EPC projects," in Risk management in environment, production and economy, vol. 12, Rijeka, Croatia: InTech, 2011, pp. 123–46.
B. Oztaysi, "A decision model for information technology selection using AHP integrated TOPSIS-Grey: The case of content management systems," Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 70, pp. 44–54, Nov. 2014.
Y. Dou, Q. Zhu, and J. Sarkis, "Evaluating green supplier development programs with a grey-analytical network process-based methodology," European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 233, no. 2, pp. 420–431, Mar. 2014.
A. Gabus and E. Fontela, "World problems, an invitation to further thought within the framework of DEMATEL," Battelle Geneva Research Center, 1972.
A. Gabus and E. Fontela, "Perceptions of the world problematique: Communication procedure, communicating with those bearing collective responsibility," Battelle Geneva Research Center, 1973.
W. W. Wu and Y. T. Lee, "Developing global managers’ competencies using the fuzzy DEMATEL method," Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 32, no. 2, pp. 499–507, Feb. 2007.
D. Julong, "Introduction to Grey System Theory," The Journal of Grey System, vol. 1, pp. 1–24, 1989.
S. Opricovic and G.-H. Tzeng, "Defuzzification within a multicriteria decision model," International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems, vol. 11, no. 05, pp. 635–652, Oct. 2003.
Downloads
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2024 Rana Jabbar Kasid Jalhoom, Ahmed Mohammed Raoof Mahjoob
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain the copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) after its publication in ETASR with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
