Synthesizing Environmental, Social, and Urban Density Metrics to Predict Urban Heat Island Dynamics using Remote Sensing and Support Vector Regression
Received: 1 December 2024 | Revised: 22 February 2025 and 22 March 2025 | Accepted: 2 April 2025 | Online: 4 June 2025
Corresponding author: Tarranita Kusumadewi
Abstract
Complex interactions between environmental, social, and urban density factors drive Urban Heat Island (UHI) dynamics. The current study synthesizes multidimensional metrics, including normalized difference indices, such as vegetation (NDVI), water (NDWI), moisture (NDMI), and social parameters (population density), such as urban morphology metrics (UDI) and built-up index (NDBI) to predict UHI intensity using remote sensing data and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Landsat-8, Sentinel-2A, and NASA-SRTM data from 2014 to 2023 were used to analyze Land Surface Temperature (LST) trends and spatially identify UHI hotspots in Malang City, Indonesia. The SVR model demonstrated robust performance, achieving an R² of 0.78, an RMSE of 0.23, and a MAPE of 0.46%. Results indicate that increasing urban density (UDI and NDBI) and population density significantly amplify LST, while higher NDVI values mitigate UHI effects. Temporal and spatial analyses reveal a steady expansion of UHI hotspots from central districts (e.g. Klojen) to peripheral areas (e.g. Sukun and Kedungkandang), driven by vegetation loss and urban sprawl. These findings underscore the potential of synthesizing multidimensional metrics for UHI prediction and highlight the value of integrating remote sensing data with machine learning models. The study provides actionable insights for urban planners to design targeted interventions, such as urban greening and density management, to mitigate UHI effects and enhance urban sustainability.
Keywords:
UHI, normalized difference indices, multidimensional metrics, remote sensing, SVR, land surface temperature, urban density, environmental indicesDownloads
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Copyright (c) 2025 Tarranita Kusumadewi, Surjono Surjono, Amin Setyo Leksono, Salma Ainur Rohma, Sofia Amalia Husna, Yunifa Miftachul Arif, Ahmad Fahmi Karami
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