An Evaluation of the Extreme Rainfall Event of 2010 over the Kabul River Basin using the WRF Model

Authors

  • F. Rafi U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Pakistan
  • G. H. Dars U.S.-Pakistan Centers for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Jamshoro, Pakistan
  • C. Strong Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, USA
  • K. Ansari U.S.-Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water, Mehran University of Engineering and Technology, Pakistan
  • S. H. Ali Glacier Monitoring and Research Center (GMRC), Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA), Pakistan
Volume: 12 | Issue: 1 | Pages: 8017-8022 | February 2022 | https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.4587

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are among the most severe weather hazards. Knowledge about the spatial patterns underlying such events in the Upper Indus Basin is limited because estimating precipitation is very challenging due to the data scarcity and the complex orography. Numerical weather prediction models can be applied at a fine resolution to overcome this issue. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1 was applied over the Kabul River Basin to simulate the temperature and precipitation of monsoon season 2010, i.e., 1st May to 16th September 2010. We considered the May month as a spin-up period. The initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The model was set up by using two-nested domains with increasing horizontal resolution moving inward from 15km on domain d01 to 5km on domain d02. The simulations were compared with TRMM 3B42, and station data collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and Water and the Power Development Authority using bias, percentage bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation. The results revealed that the simulated precipitation was improved from d01 to d02. However, the model showed mixed results with overestimation of precipitation at some stations and underestimations at others. Simulated precipitation generally agreed better with TRMM than with station data. Overall, the results indicate that the WRF model can be used to simulate heavy precipitation in complex terrain.

Keywords:

Pakistan, climate change, WRF-ARW model, Upper Indus Basin, Kabul River Basin

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

A. Aziz, "Rainfall-runoff modeling of the trans-boundary Kabul River Basin using integrated flood analysis system (IFAS)," Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, vol. 10, no. 20, pp. 75–81, 2014.

A. A. Mahessar et al., "Rainfall Analysis for Hyderabad and Nawabshah, Sindh, Pakistan," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 10, no. 6, pp. 6597–6602, Dec. 2020. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.3923

S. R. Samo, N. Bhatti, A. Saand, M. A. Keerio, and D. K. Bangwar, "Temporal Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Trends in Shaheed Benazir Abad Sindh, Pakistan," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 2171–2176, Dec. 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.1388

A. A. Mahessar et al., "Flash Flood Climatology in the Lower Region of Southern Sindh," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. 4474–4479, Aug. 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.2726

The World Bank, Pakistan Floods 2010. Preliminary damage and needs assessment. Washington, DC, USA: The World Bank, 2010.

G. H. Dars, B. K. Lashari, M. S. Soomro, C. Strong, and K. Ansari, "Pakistan’s Water Resources in the Era of Climate Change," in Water Resources of Pakistan: Issues and Impacts, New York, NY, USA: Springer, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65679-9_6

F. Safdar, M. F. Khokhar, M. Arshad, and I. H. Adil, "Climate Change Indicators and Spatiotemporal Shift in Monsoon Patterns in Pakistan," Advances in Meteorology, vol. 2019, Dec. 2019, Art. no. e8281201. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/8281201

T. Ushiyama, T. Sayama, Y. Tatebe, S. Fujioka, and K. Fukami, "Numerical Simulation of 2010 Pakistan Flood in the Kabul River Basin by Using Lagged Ensemble Rainfall Forecasting," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 193–211, Feb. 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-13-011.1

M. N. Ahasan and A. Q. Khan, "Simulation of a flood producing rainfall event of 29 July 2010 over north-west Pakistan using WRF-ARW model," Natural Hazards, vol. 69, no. 1, pp. 351–363, Oct. 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0719-6

K. Sugiura, A., Fujioka, S., Nabesaka, S., Sayama, T., Iwami, Y., Fukami, K., ... & Takeuchi, "Challenges on Modelling a Large River Basin with Scarce Data : A Case Study of the Indus Upper Catchment," J. Hydrol. Environ. Res., vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 59–64, 2014.

G. H. Dars, M. Sattar, M. Touseef, C. Strong, and M. R. Najafi, "Study of multi-model ensemble high-resolution projections of major climatic variables over the Indus River Basin and Pakistan," Mehran University Research Journal Of Engineering & Technology, vol. 40, no. 1, pp. 104–115, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22581/muet1982.2101.10

V. Duliere, Y. Zhang, and E. P. Salathe, "Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A Comparison between Observations, Reanalysis Data, and Regional Models," Journal of Climate, vol. 24, no. 7, pp. 1950–1964, Apr. 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3224.1

J. Scalzitti, C. Strong, and A. K. Kochanski, "A 26 year high-resolution dynamical downscaling over the Wasatch Mountains: Synoptic effects on winter precipitation performance," Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 121, no. 7, pp. 3224–3240, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD024497

F. Viterbo et al., "High-Resolution Simulations of the 2010 Pakistan Flood Event: Sensitivity to Parameterizations and Initialization Time," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 17, no. 4, pp. 1147–1167, Apr. 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0098.1

J. Scalzitti, C. Strong, and A. Kochanski, "Climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in western U.S. snowpack variability," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 43, no. 10, pp. 5361–5369, 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068798

K. Ullah and G. Shouting, "A diagnostic study of convective environment leading to heavy rainfall during the summer monsoon 2010 over Pakistan," Atmospheric Research, vol. 120–121, pp. 226–239, Feb. 2013. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.08.021

M. S. Iqbal, Z. H. Dahri, E. P. Querner, A. Khan, and N. Hofstra, "Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency and Intensity in the Kabul River Basin," Geosciences, vol. 8, no. 4, Apr. 2018, Art. no. 114. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040114

A. Mehmood, S. Jia, R. Mahmood, J. Yan, and M. Ahsan, "Non-Stationary Bayesian Modeling of Annual Maximum Floods in a Changing Environment and Implications for Flood Management in the Kabul River Basin, Pakistan," Water, vol. 11, no. 6, p. 1246, Jun. 2019. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w11061246

M. S. Khattak, F. Anwar, T. U. Saeed, M. Sharif, K. Sheraz, and A. Ahmed, "Floodplain Mapping Using HEC-RAS and ArcGIS: A Case Study of Kabul River," Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, vol. 41, no. 4, pp. 1375–1390, Apr. 2016. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13369-015-1915-3

B. Dey, V. K. Sharma, and A. Rango, "A Test of Snowmelt-Runoff Model for a Major River Basin in Western Himalayas," Hydrology Research, vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 167–178, Jun. 1989. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.1989.0013

Skamarock et al., "A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3," UCAR/NCAR, Jun. 2008.

S. Saha et al., "The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, vol. 91, no. 8, pp. 1015–1058, Aug. 2010.

G.-Y. Niu et al., "The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements," Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 116, 2011, Art. no. D12109. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015139

S.-Y. Hong, Y. Noh, and J. Dudhia, "A New Vertical Diffusion Package with an Explicit Treatment of Entrainment Processes," Monthly Weather Review, vol. 134, no. 9, pp. 2318–2341, Sep. 2006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3199.1

G. Thompson, P. R. Field, R. M. Rasmussen, and W. D. Hall, "Explicit Forecasts of Winter Precipitation Using an Improved Bulk Microphysics Scheme. Part II: Implementation of a New Snow Parameterization," Monthly Weather Review, vol. 136, no. 12, pp. 5095–5115, Dec. 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2008MWR2387.1

M. J. Iacono, J. S. Delamere, E. J. Mlawer, M. W. Shephard, S. A. Clough, and W. D. Collins, "Radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases: Calculations with the AER radiative transfer models," Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, vol. 113, 2008, Art. no. D13103. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD009944

J. Dudhia, "Numerical Study of Convection Observed during the Winter Monsoon Experiment Using a Mesoscale Two-Dimensional Model," Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 46, no. 20, pp. 3077–3107, Oct. 1989. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2

A. S. Monin and A. M. Obukhov, "Basic laws of turbulent mixing in the surface layer of the atmosphere," Contrib. Geophys. Inst. Acad. Sci. USSR 151, vol. 163, 1954, Art. no. e187.

Z. I. Janjic, "Comments on ‘Development and Evaluation of a Convection Scheme for Use in Climate Models,’" Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, vol. 57, no. 21, pp. 3686–3686, Nov. 2000. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<3686:CODAEO>2.0.CO;2

N. Y. Krakauer, T. Lakhankar, and G. H. Dars, "Precipitation Trends over the Indus Basin," Climate, vol. 7, no. 10, Oct. 2019, Art. no. 116. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/cli7100116

A. F. Ali et al., "Evaluation and Comparison of TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Products With Reference to Rain Gauge Observations in Hunza River Basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan," Sustainability, vol. 9, no. 11, Nov. 2017, Art. no. 1954. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su9111954

M. S. Bukovsky and D. J. Karoly, "Precipitation Simulations Using WRF as a Nested Regional Climate Model," Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 48, no. 10, pp. 2152–2159, Oct. 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAMC2186.1

A. Givati, B. Lynn, Y. Liu, and A. Rimmer, "Using the WRF Model in an Operational Streamflow Forecast System for the Jordan River," Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, vol. 51, no. 2, pp. 285–299, Feb. 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-11-082.1

A. Jabbari, J.-M. So, and D.-H. Bae, "Precipitation Forecast Contribution Assessment in the Coupled Meteo-Hydrological Models," Atmosphere, vol. 11, no. 1, Jan. 2020, Art. no. 34. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11010034

G. H. Dars, C. Strong, A. K. Kochanski, K. Ansari, and S. H. Ali, "The Spatiotemporal Variability of Temperature and Precipitation Over the Upper Indus Basin: An Evaluation of 15 Year WRF Simulations," Applied Sciences, vol. 10, no. 5, Jan. 2020, Art. no. 1765. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/app10051765

F. Maussion, D. Scherer, R. Finkelnburg, J. Richters, W. Yang, and T. Yao, "WRF simulation of a precipitation event over the Tibetan Plateau, China – an assessment using remote sensing and ground observations," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 15, no. 6, pp. 1795–1817, Jun. 2011. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1795-2011

J. Norris et al., "The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Himalaya: evaluation of one-year WRF model simulation," Climate Dynamics, vol. 49, no. 5, pp. 2179–2204, Sep. 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3414-y

G. Skok, J. Tribbia, and J. Rakovec, "Object-Based Analysis and Verification of WRF Model Precipitation in the Low- and Midlatitude Pacific Ocean," Monthly Weather Review, vol. 138, no. 12, pp. 4561–4575, Dec. 2010. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3472.1

Downloads

How to Cite

[1]
F. Rafi, G. H. Dars, C. Strong, K. Ansari, and S. H. Ali, “An Evaluation of the Extreme Rainfall Event of 2010 over the Kabul River Basin using the WRF Model”, Eng. Technol. Appl. Sci. Res., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 8017–8022, Feb. 2022.

Metrics

Abstract Views: 332
PDF Downloads: 222

Metrics Information
Bookmark and Share

Most read articles by the same author(s)