Green Scenarios for Power Generation in Vietnam by 2030

V. H. M. Nguyen, L. D. L. Nguyen, C. V. Vo, B. T. T. Phan

Abstract


Energy for future sustainable economic development is considered one crucial issue in Vietnam. This article aims to investigate green scenarios for power generation in Vietnam by 2030. Four scenarios named as business as usual (BAU), low green (LG), high green (HG) and crisis have been proposed for power generation in Vietnam with projection to 2030. Three key factors have been selected for these scenarios, namely: (1) future fuel prices, (2) reduction of load demand caused by the penetration of LED technology and rooftop photovoltaic (PV) systems, and (3) the introduction of power generation from renewable sources. The least costly structure of power generation system has been found. CO2 emission reduction of HG in comparison to the BAU scenario and its effect on generation cost reduction are computed. Results show that BAU is the worst scenario in terms of CO2 emissions because of the higher proportion of power generation from coal and fossil fuels. LG and HG scenarios show their positive impacts both on CO2 emissions and cost reduction. HG is defined as the greenest scenario by its maximum potential on CO2 emission reduction (~146.92Mt CO2) in 2030. Additionally, selling mitigated CO2can make green scenarios more competitive to BAU and Crisis in terms of cost. Two ranges of generation cost (4.3-5.5 and 6.0-7.7US$cent/kWh) have been calculated and released in correspondence with low and high fuel price scenarios in the future. Using LED lamps and increasing the installed capacity of rooftop PVs may help reduce electric load demand. Along with the high contribution of renewable sources will make the HG scenario become more attractive both in environmental and economic aspects when the Crisis scenario comes. Generation costs of all scenarios shall become cheap enough for promoting economic development in Vietnam by 2030.


Keywords


green; scenario; least cost; optimum power generation; Vietnam

Full Text:

PDF

References


IEA, World Energy Outlook 2017, IEA, 2017

BP, BP Energy Outlook 2035, BP, 2015

G. Fan, N. Stern, O. Edenhofer, S. Xu, K. Eklund, F. Ackerman, L. Li, K. Halding, The Economics of Climate Change in China: Towards a Low-Carbon Economy, Stockholm Environment Institute, 2011

M. R. Salehizadeh, “A. Rahimi-Kian, K. Hausken, A Leader–Follower Game on Congestion Management in Power Systems”, in: Game Theoretic Analysis of Congestion, Safety and Security, pp. 81-112, Springer, 2015

M. R. Salehizadeh, S. Soltaniyan, “Application of Fuzzy Q-Learning for Electricity Market Modeling by Considering Renewable Power Penetration”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 56, pp. 1172-1181, 2016

M. R. Salehizadeh, A. Rahimi‐Kian, M. Oloomi‐Buygi, “A Multi‐Attribute Congestion‐Driven Approach for Evaluation of Power Generation Plants”, International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems, Vol. 25, No. 3, pp. 482-497, 2015

M. R. Salehizadeh, A. Rahimi-Kian, M. Oloomi-Buygi, “Security-Based Multi-Objective Congestion Management for Emission Reduction in Power System”, International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, Vol. 65, pp. 124-135, 2015

W. Wangjiraniran, B. Eua-Arporn, “Assessment of Renewable Energy Penetration on Power Development Plan in Thailand”, Journal of Power and Energy Systems, Vol. 5, No. 3, pp. 209-217, 2011

N. T. Dung, Decision 428/QD-TTg, March, 18, 2016 of the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Revisions to the National Power Development Plan from 2011 to 2020 with Visions Extended to 2030, 2016

H. T. Nguyen, “Main Drivers of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Vietnam Trajectory 2000-2011: An Input-Output Structural Decomposition Analysis”, Journal of Sustainable Development, Vol. 11, No. 4, pp. 129-147, 2018

N. X. Phuc, Decision 11/QD-TTg, April, 14, 2017 of the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Support Mechanisms for the Development of Solar Power Projects in Vietnam, 2017

Department of Energy & Climate Change - UK, DECC Fossil Fuel Price Projections, 2013

V. H. M. Nguyen, C. V. Vo, K. T. P. Nguyen, B. T. T. Phan, “Forecast on 2030 Vietnam Electricity Consumption”, Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, Vol. 8, No. 3, pp. 2869-2874, 2018

V. H. M. Nguyen, C. V. Vo, B. T. T. Phan, “Peak Load Forecasting for Vietnam National Power System to 2030”, Journal of Science & Technology of Technical Universities – Hanoi University of Science and Technology, No. 123, pp. 7-13, 2017

N. T. Dung, Decision 2068/QD-TTg, November, 25, 2015 of the Prime Minister of Vietnam, The Development Strategy of Renewable Energy of Vietnam by 2030 with a Vision to 2050, 2015

V. H. M. Nguyen, A. N. Nguyen, C. V. Vo, B. T. T. Phan, “Forecasting Vietnam’s Electric Load Profile to 2030”, Journal of Technical Education Science, Vol. 49, pp. 51-57, 2018

J. Polo, S. Martinez, C. M. Fernandez-Peruchena, A. Navarro, J. M. Vindel, M. Gaston, L. R. Santigosa, E. Soria, M. V. Guisado, A. Bernados, I. Pagola, M. Olano, Maps of Solar Resource and Potential in Viet Nam, Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, 2015

AWS Truepower, Wind Resource Atlas of Vietnam, 2011

V. V. Cuong, “CO2 life cycle emission factors of power generation in Vietnam”, Journal of Science & Technology of Technical Universities – Hanoi University of Science and Technology, Vol. 79, 102-107, 2010

NREL, Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Solar Photovoltaics, NREL/FS-6A20-56487, NREL, 2012

R. C. Thomson, G. P. Harrison, Life Cycle Costs and Carbon Emissions of Wind Power, University of Edinburgh, 2015

Synapse Energy Economics, Carbon Dioxide Price Forecast, Synapse Energy Economics Inc., 2015

Ministry of Industry and Trade, Decision 942/QD-BCT, March, 11, 2016 of the Minister of Ministry of Industry & Trade, Vietnam, Avoiding Cost Appling for Bimass Power Projects in 2016, 2016

N. X. Phuc, Decision 39/2018/QD-TTg, September, 10, 2018 of the Prime Minister of Vietnam, Amending Several Articles of Decision No. 37/2011/qd-ttg Dated June 29, 2011 of The Prime Minister on Provison of Assistance in Development of Wind Power Projects in Vietnam, 2018




eISSN: 1792-8036     pISSN: 2241-4487