Forecast on 2030 Vietnam Electricity Consumption


  • V. H. M. Nguyen Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, HCMC University of Technology and Education, Vietnam
  • K. T. P. Nguyen Department of Research and Development, Global Electrical Technology Corporation, Vietnam
  • C. V. Vo Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, HCMC University of Technology and Education, Vietnam
  • B. T. T. Phan Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, HCMC University of Technology, Vietnam


The first but very significant step in electricity system planning is to make an accurate long-term forecast on electricity consumption. This article aims to forecast the consumption for the Vietnam electricity system (GWH) up to 2030. An econometric model with the Cobb Douglas production function is used. The five variables proposed in the forecasting function are GDP, income, population, proportion of industry and service in GDP, and number of households. The forecasting equation is tested in terms of stationary and co-integration to choose meaningful variables and to eliminate the minor ones which account for none or small impacts on the forecast. The results show that: (1) the qualified forecasting equation only includes 3 major variables: the per capita income, the population, and the number of households, (2) with the medium income scenario, the forecasting consumptions in 2020, 2025, 2030 are 230,195 GWH, 349,949 GWH, 511,268 GWH respectively. (3) The GDP and the proportion of industry and service in GDP do not make major impacts on this forecasting in Vietnam. The method and the result of this article are likely a typical example of forecasting electricity consumption in developing countries which have a transforming economy similar to that in Vietnam.


long-term, forecasting, electricity, consumption, econometric, model, Cobb Douglas, production, function, Vietnam


Download data is not yet available.


Institute of Energy, EVN, Revised version of master plan No. VII for power system in Vietnam, 2015

P. Ozoh, S. Abd-Rahman, J. Labadin, M. Apperley, “A comparative analysis of techniques for forecasting electricity consumption”, International Journal of Computer Applications (0975 – 8887), Vol. 88, No. 15, pp. 8-12, 2014 DOI:

A. K. Imtiaz, N. B Mariun, M. M. R. Amran, M. Saleem, N. I. A. Wahab, Mohibullah, “Evaluation and forecasting of long term electricity consumption for malaysia by statistical analysis”, IEEE International Power and Energy Conference (PECon 2006), Putrajaya, Malaysia, pp. 257-261, November 28-29, 2006 DOI:

M. Shahbaz, H. H. Lean, “The dynamics of electricity consumption and economic growth: A revisit study of their causality in Pakistan”, Energy, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 146-153, 2012 DOI:

J. Yuan, C. Zhao, S. Yu, Z. Hu, “Electricity consumption and economic growth in China: Co-integration and co-feature analysis”, Energy Economics, Vol. 29, No. 6, pp. 1179–1191, 2007 DOI:

R. F. Engle, C. W. J. Granger, “Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing”, Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp. 251-276, 1987 DOI:

World Bank Data, available at:


General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Master investigation on population and households 2009 – Vietnam, 2009

General Statistics Office of Vietnam, Master investigation on populayion and households 2014 – Vietnam, 2014

R. Raudjarv, L. Kuskova, “Energy consumption in households”, , Quarterly bulletin of statistics Estonia, Vol. 2010, No. 1, pp. 21-28, 2010

Helgi Library, “Number of Households in Vietnam”, available at:, last access: 03/2018

S. B. Green, “How many subjects does it take to do a regression analysis?”, Multivariate Behavioral Research, Vol. 26, No. 3, pp. 499-510, 1991 DOI:

B. G. Tabachnick, L. S. Fidell, Using Multivariate Statistics, California State University - Northridge, Pearson Education. Inc., 2007

General Statistics Office of Vietnam, United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA), “Vietnam Population Projection 2014-2049”, 2016


How to Cite

V. H. M. Nguyen, K. T. P. Nguyen, C. V. Vo, and B. T. T. Phan, “Forecast on 2030 Vietnam Electricity Consumption”, Eng. Technol. Appl. Sci. Res., vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 2869–2874, Jun. 2018.


Abstract Views: 1653
PDF Downloads: 521

Metrics Information
Bookmark and Share

Most read articles by the same author(s)