Modeling Thailand's Municipal Solid Waste Decarbonization: A System Dynamics Approach to Aligning MSW Management with NDC 3.0 and Net Zero 2050 Goals

Nattarat Phaingam; Phairat Usubharatana; Harnpon Phungrassami

doi:10.48084/etasr.18107

Authors

Nattarat Phaingam Chemical Engineering Department, Thammasat School of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Thammasat University, Thailand
Phairat Usubharatana Chemical Engineering Department, Thammasat School of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Thammasat University, Thailand
Harnpon Phungrassami Chemical Engineering Department, Thammasat School of Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Thammasat University, Thailand https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2930-5409

Volume: 16 | Issue: 3 | Pages: 36200-36218 | June 2026 | https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.18107

Received: 11 February 2026 | Revised: 16 March 2026 | Accepted: 23 March 2026 | Online: 30 May 2026

Corresponding author: Harnpon Phungrassami

Abstract

This study applied a System Dynamics (SD) model to simulate Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generation and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in Thailand through to 2050. Calibrated with 2008-2024 data, the model uniquely incorporated tourism-related demand shocks and post-COVID recovery patterns alongside population, GDP, and urbanization drivers. Four scenarios were evaluated: Baseline Dynamic (BD), National Roadmap (NR), Circular Resilience (CR), and Net Zero Alignment (NZA). The results indicate that under BD, emissions reach 19.9 Mt CO2e by 2050, failing national climate targets. Meanwhile, NR moderates growth (16.4 Mt CO2e) and only CR (6.5 Mt CO2e) and NZA (4.6 Mt CO2e) achieve substantial reductions. Notably, the NZA scenario demonstrated alignment with Thailand’s ambitious NDC 3.0 target of a 47% reduction by 2035. Landfill diversion of biodegradable waste was identified as the primary leverage point, minimizing methane generation at the source. This research provides a strategic framework to synchronize circular economy policies with explicit decarbonization objectives, supporting Thailand’s transition toward Net Zero 2050.

Keywords:

Municipal Solid Waste (MSW), Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, System Dynamics (SD), decarbonization, Thailand NDC 3.0

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