Policy-Oriented Carbon Neutrality Pathways in Shanxi's Power System: A LEAP-Based Scenario Analysis
Received: 31 October 2025 | Revised: 24 November 2025 and 8 December 2025 | Accepted: 11 December 2025 | Online: 18 December 2025
Corresponding author: Buncha Wattana
Abstract
With China's carbon peak and neutrality targets in sight, the low-carbon transformation of carbon-intensive power systems becomes increasingly important for realizing China's national emission reduction targets. Based on the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, this study presents the first policy-driven multi-scenario LEAP analysis of Shanxi's power system, analyzing the transition paths of the power system in Shanxi Province under different policy scenarios, and further quantifies the changes in generation structure, fossil energy consumption, and major air pollutant emissions. Under the Reference Scenario (REF), coal power still contributes about 78% of total generation in 2060, with fossil energy consumption and CO2 emissions continuing to increase. In the Policy-Driven Scenario (PDS), the gradual expansion of renewable energy reduces CO2 emissions by roughly 100 million tons compared with REF. Under the Carbon Neutrality-Target Scenario (CNS), the share of coal power declines to around 11% in 2060, renewable output rises to nearly 1,000 TWh (terawatt-hours), and major air pollutants drop by 86.3% compared with REF. These results suggest that stronger policy measures, especially those promoting renewable energy and related supporting technologies, are essential for guiding Shanxi toward a carbon-neutral power system.
Keywords:
Shanxi Province, carbon neutrality, policy pathways, Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, scenario analysisDownloads
References
W. Jiang and Y. Sun, "Which is the more important factor of carbon emission, coal consumption or industrial structure?," Energy Policy, vol. 176, May 2023, Art. no. 113508. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113508
NBS, China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2021. Beijing, China: China Statistical Publishing House, 2022.
C. Zhao, S. Ju, Y. Xue, T. Ren, Y. Ji, and X. Chen, "China's energy transitions for carbon neutrality: challenges and opportunities," Carbon Neutrality, vol. 1, no. 1, Apr. 2022, Art. no. 7. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s43979-022-00010-y
F. Zhao, F. Bai, X. Liu, and Z. Liu, "A Review on Renewable Energy Transition under China's Carbon Neutrality Target," Sustainability, vol. 14, no. 22, Nov. 2022, Art. no. 15006. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su142215006
Y. Hu, R. Zhang, X. Qie, and X. Zhang, "Research on coal demand forecast and carbon emission reduction in Shanxi Province under the vision of carbon peak," Frontiers in Environmental Science, vol. 10, Nov. 2022, Art. no. 923670. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.923670
Xinhua. "China's Shanxi sees over half of coal produced by intelligent mining." The People's Republic of China's official portal. https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202410/15/content_WS670da7d7c6d0868f4e8ebe04.html.
CEC, China Electric Power Statistical Yearbook 2022. Beijing, China: China Statistical Publishing House, 2023.
"Emission Inventories for 30 Provinces 2022." Carbon Emission Accounts and Datasets. https://www.ceads.net.cn/data/province/.
"China CO2 Emissions." Worldometer. https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/china-co2-emissions/.
Shanxi Provincial Government. "Notice of the Shanxi Provincial People's Government on Issuing the Implementation Plan for Carbon Peaking in Shanxi Province." Shanxi Provincial People's Government Portal. https://www.shanxi.gov.cn/zfxxgk/zfcbw/zfgb2/2023nzfgb/d2q_76595/szfwj_77832/202301/t20230119_7825853.shtml.
Shanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission, Shanxi Provincial Energy Bureau. "Notice on Issuing the '14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Renewable Energy in Shanxi Province." Shanxi Provincial People's Government Portal. https://nyj.shanxi.gov.cn/zfxxgk/fdzdgknr/ghjh/202302/t20230201_7903550.shtml.
Y. Wang et al., "Carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China: Goals, implementation path and prospects," China Geology, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 720–746, Dec. 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31035/cg2021083
R. Dong, C. Fu, Y. Liu, Y. Xu, and K. Li, "Modeling China's carbon emission reduction trajectory and peak path using a system dynamic approach," Ecological Modelling, vol. 505, June 2025, Art. no. 111104. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111104
X. Wang, F. Fan, C. Liu, Y. Han, Q. Liu, and A. Wang, "Regional differences and driving factors analysis of carbon emissions from power sector in China," Ecological Indicators, vol. 142, Sept. 2022, Art. no. 109297. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2022.109297
M. Yang, Y. Liu, J. Tian, F. Cheng, and P. Song, "Dynamic Evolution and Regional Disparity in Carbon Emission Intensity in China," Sustainability, vol. 14, no. 7, Apr. 2022, Art. no. 4052. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14074052
X. Zou, R. Wang, G. Hu, Z. Rong, and J. Li, "CO2 Emissions Forecast and Emissions Peak Analysis in Shanxi Province, China: An Application of the LEAP Model," Sustainability, vol. 14, no. 2, Jan. 2022, Art. no. 637. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020637
M. Li, Y. Zhang, and H. Liu, "Carbon Neutrality in Shanxi Province: Scenario Simulation Based on LEAP and CA-Markov Models," Sustainability, vol. 14, no. 21, Nov. 2022, Art. no. 13808. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su142113808
L. Wang et al., "Carbon emission scenario simulation and policy regulation in resource-based provinces based on system dynamics modeling," Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 460, July 2024, Art. no. 142619. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142619
Y. Han and T. Masui, "Economic Impacts of Decarbonization in Power Sector from the Perspective of Carbon Neutrality: A Case Study of Shanxi Province," Chemical Engineering Transactions, vol. 106, pp. 349–354, Dec. 2023.
Q. Wu and C. Peng, "Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions of China's Electric Power Industry Up to 2030," Energies, vol. 9, no. 12, Dec. 2016, Art. no. 988. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en9120988
X. Xie, Y. Li, H. Zhang, Z. Chang, and Y. Zhan, "Pathway Simulation and Evaluation of Carbon Neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region Based on the LEAP Model," Sustainability, vol. 17, no. 7, Apr. 2025, Art. no. 3233. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su17073233
Y. Xiao, C. Yang, T. Chen, M. Lei, and B. Wattana, "Analysis of Wind-Solar Power Development and Policy Strategies for Carbon Neutrality in Hunan Province," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 21326–21334, Apr. 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.10023
Shanxi Provincial Government. "Notice on Issuing the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives through the Year 2035 of Shanxi Province." Shanxi Provincial People's Government Portal. http://www.xiaoyi.gov.cn/xxgk/fdzdgknr/jhgh/202210/t20221025_1704869.shtml.
Shanxi PBS. "Shanxi Statistical Yearbook 2011-2020." Shanxi Provincial People's Government Portal. https://tjj.shanxi.gov.cn/tjsj/tjnj/.
CEC, China Electric Power Statistical Yearbook 2011-2020. Beijing, China: China Statistical Publishing House, 2021.
MEE. "Guidelines for Compilation of Emission Inventory of Atmospheric Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Sources (Trial)." Environmental Protection Technical Documents. https://www.mee.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bgth/201401/W020140124409250653376.pdf.
G. He and D. M. Kammen, "Where, when and how much wind is available? A provincial-scale wind resource assessment for China," Energy Policy, vol. 74, pp. 116–122, Nov. 2014. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.07.003
"Shanxi's renewable energy installed capacity will surpass 83 GW by 2025." Azure International. https://www.azure-international.com/shanxis-renewable-energy-installed-capacity-will-surpass-83gw-by-2025/.
"China wind and solar power generation potential assessment 2024." China Academy of Environmental Planning (CAEP). https://www.caep.org.cn/sy/tdftzhyjzx/zxdt/202406/W020240614475295022348.pdf.
J. Yan, D. Zhang, W. An, Y. Liu, J. Wu, and P. Yang, "Distribution Characteristics and Assessment of Solar Energy Resource in Shanxi," Journal of Arid Meteorology, vol. 32, no. 5, pp. 712–718, Oct. 2014.
L. Cui, J. Zhang, Y. Su, and S. Li, "A GIS-Based Multidimensional Evaluation Method for Solar Energy Potential in Shanxi Province, China," Energies, vol. 16, no. 3, Feb. 2023, Art. no. 1305. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en16031305
C. Zhou, G. Huang, and J. Chen, "A Multi-Objective Energy and Environmental Systems Planning Model: Management of Uncertainties and Risks for Shanxi Province, China," Energies, vol. 11, no. 10, Oct. 2018, Art. no. 2723. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en11102723
J. Yuan et al., "The social impacts on China's vulnerable cities in the transition away from coal power," iScience, vol. 28, no. 11, Nov. 2025, Art. no. 113643. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2025.113643
W. Ge et al., "Impacts of coal use phase-out in China on the atmospheric environment: (1) emissions, surface concentrations and exceedance of air quality standards," Atmospheric Environment, vol. 315, Dec. 2023, Art. no. 120163. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.120163
Y. Xu, J. Hu, Q. Ying, H. Hao, D. Wang, and H. Zhang, "Current and future emissions of primary pollutants from coal-fired power plants in Shaanxi, China," Science of The Total Environment, vol. 595, pp. 505–514, Oct. 2017. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.267
J. Lou, S. Yu, R. Y. Cui, A. Miller, and N. Hultman, "A provincial analysis on wind and solar investment needs towards China's carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, vol. 378, no. A, Jan. 2025, Art. no. 124841. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124841
Y. Xiao, C. Yang, T. Chen, M. Lei, S. Wattana, and B. Wattana, "Strategies of a Wind–Solar–Storage System in Jiangxi Province Using the LEAP–NEMO Framework for Achieving Carbon Peaking Goals," Energies, vol. 18, no. 5, Mar. 2025, Art. no. 1135. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/en18051135
S. Nemdili, I. C. Ngaru, and M. Kerfa, "Solar-Wind Hybrid Power Generation System Optimization Using Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES)," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 9515–9522, Dec. 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.5236
Z. Zhi, Z. Ming, Y. Bo, G. Zun, W. Zhaoyuan, and L. Gengyin, "Multipath retrofit planning approach for coal-fired power plants in low-carbon power system transitions: Shanxi Province case in China," Energy, vol. 275, July 2023, Art. no. 127502. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127502
K. Jiang, P. Ashworth, S. Zhang, X. Liang, Y. Sun, and D. Angus, "China's carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) policy: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 119, Mar. 2020, Art. no. 109601. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.109601
W. Zhou, L. Pan, and X. Mao, "Optimization and Comparative Analysis of Different CCUS Systems in China: The Case of Shanxi Province," Sustainability, vol. 15, no. 18, Sept. 2023, Art. no. 13455. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su151813455
D. Song, T. Jiang, and C. Rao, "Review of Policy Framework for the Development of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage in China," International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol. 19, no. 24, Jan. 2022, Art. no. 16853. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192416853
Downloads
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Zhu Guangyao, Yao Xiao, Hai Yang, Buncha Wattana
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain the copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) after its publication in ETASR with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
