The Effect of Climate Change on the Failure of Reservoir Operations to Supply Irrigation Water
The Case Study of Pandanduri Dam, West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia
Received: 8 August 2025 | Revised: 30 August 2025, 16 September 2025, 27 September 2025, and 9 October 2025 | Accepted: 12 October 2025 | Online: 17 November 2025
Corresponding author: I Wayan Yasa
Abstract
Climate change is a natural phenomenon characterized by rapid changes in climatic elements. One impact of climate change is a long-term reduction in reservoir water volume. The research method includes climate change modeling with statistical tools and assessing reservoir operational performance based on the reservoir water balance concept, using indicators of reliability and failure to meet irrigation water needs. The data used in the modeling include reservoir capacity, irrigation service area, rainfall, climate, reservoir water level, and river baseflow. The analysis shows that climate change has affected the Pandanduri dam from 1994 to 2023. The main impact is a significant reduction in reservoir water volume, especially during both regular and dry seasons. During the dry season, the reservoir's water level nearly reaches its dead storage capacity of around 4 million m³. The reservoir's failure to supply enough water for irrigation during the October planting season ranged from 4.2% to 33.3%. The failure rates during the November planting season ranged from 4.2% to 34.1%, while those in December ranged from 4.2% to 35.8%. The 0% failure rate was observed exclusively during the rainy month, which lasted only three months, during which the reservoir water volume reached its standard capacity.
Keywords:
climate change, reservoir operations, dams, failures, reliabilityDownloads
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