The Influence of Global Risks on Supply Chain Tokens’ Intra-Market Dynamics
Received: 6 June 2025 | Revised: 19 June 2025, 22 June 2025, 12 August 2025, and 26 August 2025 | Accepted: 30 August 2025 | Online: 30 September 2025
Corresponding author: Chaker Aloui
Abstract
This study provided the first assessment of how the global risk factors influence the intra-market connectedness of Supply Chain Tokens (SCTs). Specifically, the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Trade Uncertainty Index (TUI), and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) were investigated on the time-varying equicorrelations of SCTs, including XYO Network (XYO), CargoX (CXO), Morpheus Network (MNW), VeChain (VET), and OriginTrail (TRAC) between 2018 and 2025. Using a multivariate GJR-GARCH mode, the results indicated that SCTs exhibited volatile but strong correlations ranging between 0.3 and 0.8. The correlations intensified during extreme market events, like the COVID-19 outbreak, the Gaza-Israel conflict, and the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war. GPR enhanced the strength of the correlation, while EPU and TUI did not exhibited any significant impact. Furthermore, the extreme events during the sample period had no influence on the correlation's strength while reducing the time-varying instabilities. These findings offered insightful implications for tokens' traders, portfolio managers, and regulators of the SCTs’ market, particularly concerning the market integration, hedging strategies, and overall market stability.
Keywords:
geopolitical risk, trade uncertainty index, economic policy uncertainty, supply chain tokens, extreme events, equicorrelation, GJR-GARCH modelDownloads
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