A Risk-Integrated Perspective on the Influence of Technical and Environmental Complexity in Software Effort Estimation
Received: 27 May 2025 | Revised: 13 July 2025 | Accepted: 1 August 2025 | Online: 19 November 2025
Corresponding author: Riyanarto Sarno
Abstract
Accurate software effort estimation is a persistent challenge in project management, as a significant share of project failures is attributed to inadequate prior risk consideration. Among the widely adopted methodologies that are used for early estimation of the success of a project is the Use Case Points (UCP) method, yet its framework does not take into consideration risk factors, undermining its reliability. To improve upon this limitation, this study introduces UCPRisk, a rule-based expert-guided UCP model that explicitly integrates risk factors across six dimensions: requirements, planning and control, project complexity, user involvement, team dynamics, and organizational environment. The model was evaluated through three public service application case studies, producing effort estimates of 1,564.42 man-hours (agriculture application), 7,287.91 man-hours (company registration), and 4,669.17 man-hours (industrial permit registration). Compared to traditional UCP, UCPRisk reduced the average Relative Error (RE) to 24.3%, demonstrating improved alignment with actual project outcomes. While not a definitive cost calculation tool, UCPRisk provides a structured framework that embeds risk into early estimation, offering more realistic projections for software development.
Keywords:
use case points, software risk, risk complexity, software estimation, education qualityDownloads
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