Modeling Multiple Dam Breaks: A Case Study on the Hypothetical Failure of Adhaim and Makhool Dams
Received: 21 April 2025 | Revised: 18 May 2025 and 4 June 2025 | Accepted: 6 June 2025 | Online: 2 August 2025
Corresponding author: Ahmed Al-Fahal
Abstract
This study examines the hypothetical consequences of the simultaneous failure of the Adhaim and Makhool dams in Iraq, focusing on the hydrological and socio-economic impacts. Advanced hydrodynamic modeling is used to simulate flood behavior, including the extent of inundation, the flood wave movement, and the timing of peak discharges downstream. The analysis considers the dam structural features, breach sizes, and downstream terrain. Simulation results indicate that serious consequences are likely, with heavy flooding posing a threat to urban areas, farmland, and critical infrastructure. These findings emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive risk assessments, effective emergency planning, and strategic mitigation efforts. The study provides insights for enhancing the dam safety and disaster resilience in hydraulically interconnected regions. It identifies critical zones of inundation, maximum flood depths, arrival times, and flood durations along the river corridor and across the floodplain. These findings highlight the greater hazard posed by the cascading dam failures compared to a single dam break. Additionally, the analysis underscores the importance of early warning systems and emergency preparedness. The outcomes provide valuable guidance for risk assessment, mitigation planning, and decision-making related to the dam safety and disaster management in the region.
Keywords:
HEC-Ras model, dam break modeling, Adhaim dam, Makhool dam, flood hazardDownloads
References
M. Kiwanuka et al., "Dam breach analysis of Kibimba Dam in Uganda using HEC-RAS and HEC-GeoRAS," Environmental Systems Research, vol. 12, no. 1, Oct. 2023, Art. no. 31. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-023-00317-4
O. Shumilova et al., "Environmental effects of the Kakhovka Dam destruction by warfare in Ukraine," Science, vol. 387, no. 6739, pp. 1181–1186, Mar. 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adn8655
A. Annunziato et al., "Modelling and Validation of the Derna Dam Break Event, " GeoHazards, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 504–529, Jun. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards5020026
M. S. Badawy, S. A. Saleh, and M. R. Abbood, "Suggested Scenarios of Initial Filling for the Badush Reservoir, Iraq," Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 134–144, Dec. 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.30.4.14
I. R. Karim, Z. F. Hassan, H. H. Abdullah, and I. A. Alwan, "2D-HEC-RAS Modeling of Flood Wave Propagation in a Semi-Arid Area Due to Dam Overtopping Failure," Civil Engineering Journal, vol. 7, no. 9, pp. 1501–1514, Sep. 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-2021-03091739
W. A. Abdulrasul and W. S. Mohammed-Ali, "Experimental Study of Energy Dissipation in Sudden Contraction of Open Channels," Instrumentation Mesure Métrologie, vol. 23, no. 1, Feb. 2024.
M. Beza, A. Fikre, and A. Moshe, "Dam Breach Modeling and Downstream Flood Inundation Mapping Using HEC-RAS Model on the Proposed Gumara Dam, Ethiopia," Advances in Civil Engineering, vol. 2023, no. 1, Jan. 2023, Accessed: Jul. 03, 2025, Art. no. 8864328. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2023/8864328
S. Solava and N. Delatte, "Lessons from the Failure of the Teton Dam," in Third ASCE Forensic Engineering Congress, San Diego, California, USA, Sep. 2003, pp. 178–189. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/40692(241)20
F. Alcrudo and J. Mulet, "Description of the Tous Dam break case study (Spain)," Journal of Hydraulic Research, vol. 45, no. sup1, pp. 45–57, Dec. 2007. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00221686.2007.9521832
"Association of State Dam Safety Officials (ASDSO) 2023 Dam Safety Conference," WEST Consultants, Inc.
A. O. Turkel, H. Zaifoglu, and A. M. Yanmaz, "Probabilistic modeling of dam failure scenarios: a case study of Kanlikoy Dam in Cyprus," Natural Hazards, vol. 120, no. 11, pp. 10087–10117, Sep. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06599-w
W. Mohammed-Ali, C. Mendoza, and R. R. Holmes, "Riverbank stability assessment during hydro-peak flow events: the lower Osage River case (Missouri, USA)," International Journal of River Basin Management, vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 335–343, Jul. 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2020.1738446
A. Del Gaudio et al., "Modelling the impact of a dam-break wave on a vertical wall," Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, vol. 49, no. 7, pp. 2080–2095, 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.5817
A. Raman and F. Liu, "An investigation of the Brumadinho Dam Break with HEC RAS simulation." arXiv, Nov. 13, 2019.
A. Del Gaudio, G. Constantinescu, C. Di Cristo, F. De Paola, and A. Vacca, "Large eddy simulation of power-law fluid dam break wave impacting against a vertical wall," Physical Review Fluids, vol. 9, no. 7, Jul. 2024, Art. no. 074801. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevFluids.9.074801
M. F. Shahrim and F. C. Ros, "Dam Break Analysis of Temenggor Dam Using HEC-RAS," IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 479, no. 1, Mar. 2020, Art. no. 012041. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/479/1/012041
A. A. Khanoosh, E. H. Khaleel, and W. S. Mohammed-Ali, "The Resilience of Numerical Applications to Design Drinking Water Networks," International Journal of Design & Nature and Ecodynamics, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 1069–1075, Oct. 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18280/ijdne.180507
M. Ramola, P. C. Nayak, B. Venkatesh, and T. Thomas, "Dam break analysis using hec-ras and flood inundation modelling for Pulichinatala Dam in Andhra Pradesh, India," Indian Journal of Ecology, vol. 48, no. 2, pp. 620-626, 2021.
M. Pilotti, L. Milanesi, V. Bacchi, M. Tomirotti, and A. Maranzoni, "Dam-Break Wave Propagation in Alpine Valley with HEC-RAS 2D: Experimental Cancano Test Case," Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, vol. 146, no. 6, Jun. 2020, Art. no. 05020003. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001779
M. B. Ansori, A. A. N. S. Damarnegara, N. F. Margini, and D. A. D. Nusantara, "Flood inundation and Dam break analysis for disaster risk mitigation (a case study of way apu dam)," GEOMATE Journal, vol. 21, no. 84, pp. 85–92, Nov. 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21660/2021.84.j2130
W. S. Mohammed-Ali and R. S. Khairallah, "Flood Risk Analysis: The Case of Tigris River (Tikrit /Iraq)," Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 30, no. 1, pp. 112–118, Mar. 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.30.1.11
M. Sumira, E. Anggraheni, and R. M. S. Prastica, "Dam Break Analysis of Sermo Dam," Journal of the Civil Engineering Forum, pp. 127–138, May 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22146/jcef.5619
M. M. Altawash and H. A. Al Thamiry, "Velocity Patterns inside the Proposed Makhool Dam Reservoir with Different Operation Plans," IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 1120, no. 1, Sep. 2022, Art. no. 012015. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1120/1/012015
M. I. Huseiny, A. A. Kuntoro, E. O. Nugroho, and M. S. B. Kusuma, "Dam-Break Risk Analysis and Mitigation at Pidekso Dam, Wonogiri Regency, Central Java, Indonesia," Journal of Water Management Modeling, vol. 32, Aug. 2024, Art. no. C521.
N. M. Al-Nedawi, S. S. Sammen, and A. Fakhri, "Modeling of Flood Wave Propagation Due to Hemren Dam Failure," Diyala Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 130–145, Sep. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.24237/djes.2024.17309
M. S. Badowi, S. A. Saleh, and M. R. Abbood, "Dam Breakdown and Response of Protection Dam, Case Scenarios of Mosul-Badush Dams, Northern Iraq," Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 31, no. 1, pp. 75–87, Feb. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.31.1.7
L. Abdelghani, "Modeling of dam-break flood wave propagation using HEC-RAS 2D and GIS: case study of Taksebt dam in Algeria," World Journal of Engineering, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 376–385, Jan. 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/WJE-10-2022-0405
Y. Paşa, İ. B. Peker, A. Hacı, and S. Gülbaz, "Dam failure analysis and flood disaster simulation under various scenarios," Water Science and Technology, vol. 87, no. 5, pp. 1214–1231, Feb. 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2023.052
M. J. Mohamed, I. R. Karim, M. Y. Fattah, and N. Al-Ansari, "Modelling Flood Wave Propagation as a Result of Dam Piping Failure Using 2D-HEC-RAS," Civil Engineering Journal, vol. 9, no. 10, pp. 2503–2515, Oct. 2023. DOI: https://doi.org/10.28991/CEJ-2023-09-10-010
F. T. Gebremariam, A. H. Tesfay, F. G. Sigtryggsdóttir, H. Goitom, and L. Lia, "Overtopping-Induced Embankment Breaching Experiments: State-of-the-Art Review on Measurement and Instrumentation," Water, vol. 17, no. 7, Apr. 2025, Art. no. 1051. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w17071051
A. R. Refaiy, N. M. AboulAtta, M. A. Gad, and D. A. El-Molla, "Modeling the successive failure of complex dams systems: A necessity in the light of climatic shifts in extreme storms," Ain Shams Engineering Journal, vol. 15, no. 11, Nov. 2024, Art. no. 103033. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asej.2024.103033
D. C. Froehlich, "Embankment Dam Breach Parameters and Their Uncertainties," Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, vol. 134, no. 12, pp. 1708–1721, Dec. 2008. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2008)134:12(1708)
T. C. MacDonald and J. Langridge‐Monopolis, "Breaching Charateristics of Dam Failures," Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, vol. 110, no. 5, pp. 567–586, May 1984. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(1984)110:5(567)
J. L. Von Thun and D. R. Gillette, "Guidance on breach parameters," Internal Memorandum, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, 1990.
T. L. Wahl, "Prediction of embankment dam breach parameters—A literature review and needs assessment." Dam Safety Rep. No. DSO-98-004, U.S. Dept. of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, 1998.
T. L. Wahl, "Uncertainty of Predictions of Embankment Dam Breach Parameters," Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, vol. 130, no. 5, pp. 389–397, May 2004, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2004)130:5(389). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9429(2004)130:5(389)
Y. Xu and L. M. Zhang, "Breaching Parameters for Earth and Rockfill Dams," Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, vol. 135, no. 12, pp. 1957–1970, Dec. 2009. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)GT.1943-5606.0000162
J. Zhang, G. Fan, H. Li, J. Zhou, and X. Yang, "Large-scale field model tests of landslide dam breaching," Engineering Geology, vol. 293, Nov. 2021, Art. no. 106322. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106322
G. Brunner, "HEC-RAS 2D User’s Manual," Oct. 2024, Version 6.6.
T. A. Basheer, A. Wayayok, B. Yusuf, and R. Kamal, "Dam Breach parameters and their influence on flood hydrographs for Mosul Dam," Journal of Engineering Science and Technology, vol. 12, no. 11, pp. 2896-2908, Nov. 2017.
C. Kaya, "Multi-failure analysis of Seyhan dam and Çatalan dam," M.S. thesis, Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü, Istanbul, Turkey, 2018.
W. Mohammed-Ali, "Minimizing the detrimental effects of hydro-peaking on riverbank instability: The lower Osage River case, " Ph.D. dissertation, University of Science and Technology, Missouri, USA, Jan. 2020.
R. González Blanch, "Effect of the sub-grid geometry on two-dimensional river flow models," Bachelor thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain, 2017.
A. Jha, "Object-oriented hyperbolic solver on 2D-unstructured meshes applied to the shallow water equations," Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, UK, 2006.
H. H. Hussain et al., "Modifying the spillway of Adhaim Dam, reducing flood impact, and saving water," Journal of Water Management Modeling, vol. 30, Apr. 2022, Art. no. C485.
N. J. Rasheed, M. S. Al-Khafaji, and I. A. Alwan, "Assessing the influence of climate change on sediment dynamics in the proposed makhool dam reservoir, Iraq," Engineering and Technology Journal, vol. 42, no. 5, pp. 604–614, Apr. 2024’.
A. M. Hadi et al., "GIS-Based Rainfall Analysis using Remotely Sensed Data in Kirkuk Province, Iraq: Rainfall Analysis," Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 29, no. 4, pp. 48–55, Dec. 2022. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.29.4.6
"World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal." https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/.
T. S. Khayyun, "Mathematical Modeling of Hypothetical Failure of Multiple Dams-Mosul and Makhool Dams as a Case Study", Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Building and Construction Engineering, University of Technology, Baghdad, Iraq, 2006.
N. Al-Ansari, N. Adamo, V. K. Sissakian, S. Knutsson, and J. Laue, "Water Resources of the Tigris River Catchment," Journal of Earth Sciences and Geotechnical Engineering, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 21-42, 2018.
K. M. Mahmood and W. S. Mohammed-Ali, "A Hydraulic Performance Model of Khassa Chai River under Varying Flow Conditions," Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, vol. 15, no. 2, pp. 20934–20940, Apr. 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.9675
O. T. N. Al-Tikrity, R. H. Irzooki, and S. A. Saleh, "Hydrological and Geometric Analysis of a Proposed Reservoir on the Upper Zab River Using GIS and Remote Sensing Techniques," Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 1–12, Feb. 2025’. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.32.1.1
T. Hein et al., "Current status and restoration options for floodplains along the Danube River," Science of The Total Environment, vol. 543, pp. 778–790, Feb. 2016’. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.09.073
W. A. Abdulrasul and W. S. Mohammed-Ali, "Experimental Study of Energy Dissipation in Sudden Contraction of Open Channels," Instrumentation Mesure Métrologie, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 55-61, Feb. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18280/i2m.230105
"EarthExplorer." https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/.
A. S. Al-Fahal, A. S. Ahmed, A. K. Mohammed, and W. S. Mohammed-Ali, "Evaluation of Rainwater Harvesting Systems for Drinking Water Quality in Iraq," International Journal of Design & Nature and Ecodynamics, vol. 19, no. 1, pp. 111–117, Feb. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.18280/ijdne.190113
I. I. Ghdhban and R. H. Irzooki, "Estimating the Sediment Load Transported by the Valleys to Makhoul Dam Reservoir (Under Construction)," Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 255–271, Jun. 2024. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.31.2.24
A. A. J. Jamel and H. F. Hassan, "Effect of Core Angle in Earth Dam on Seepage Characteristic (Numerical Model)," Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 1–10, Mar. 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25130/tjes.32.1.26
Downloads
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Ahmed Al-Fahal, Rasul M. Khalaf, Raad H. Irzooki

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain the copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) after its publication in ETASR with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.