Prediction of Daily Global Solar Radiation using Resilient-propagation Artificial Neural Network and Historical Data: A Case Study of Hail, Saudi Arabia

S. Boubaker, S. Kamel, M. Kchaou

Abstract


In this paper, several different Feed Forward Artificial Neural Networks (FFANNs) were used for forecasting the one-day-ahead Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) in Hail region, Saudi Arabia. The main motivation behind predicting GHI is that it is a critical parameter in sizing and planning photovoltaic water pumping systems. The novelty of the proposed approach is that it employs only the historical values of the GHI itself as explanatory variables and a fast training algorithm (resilient-propagation). In terms of performance metrics, the rp-trained FFANNs provided better results than Quasi-Newton (bfg) algorithm trained FFANNs for almost all the studied combinations of the FFANN structure. It has been also shown that increasing the number of neurons per layer didn’t improve the performance. Medium structures with fast training algorithms are recommended.


Keywords


global horizontal irradiation (GHI); forecasting; feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN); resilient-propagation (rp) training algorithm

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References


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