A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects


  • A. Chenarani National Aerospace University «KhAI», Kharkiv, Ukraine
  • E. A. Druzhinin National Aerospace University «KhAI», Kharkiv, Ukraine
Volume: 7 | Issue: 5 | Pages: 2083-2088 | October 2017 | https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.1530


The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.


project uncertainty index, entropy, risk management, rework risk, research and development project


Download data is not yet available.


Project management Institute, A guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK® guide), 2013 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/pmj.21345

A. De Meyer, C. H. Loch, M. T. Pich, “Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos”, MIT Sloan Management Review, Vol. 43, No. 2, pp. 60-67, 2002

A. Asllani, L. Ettkin, “An entropy-based approach for measuring project uncertainty”, Journal of Management Information and Decision Sciences, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 31-46, 2007

S. D. Bushuyev, S. V. Sochnev, “Entropy measurement as a project control tool”, International Journal of Project Management, Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. 343-350, 1999 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0263-7863(98)00049-0

H. Song, D. Wu, M. Li, C. Cai, J. Li, “An entropy based approach for software risk assessment: A perspective of trustworthiness enhancement”, 2nd International Conference on Software Engineering and Data Mining (SEDM), pp. 575-578, China, June 23-25, 2010

C. C. Tseng, P. W. Ko, “Measuring schedule uncertainty for a stochastic resource-constrained project using scenario-based approach with utility-entropy decision model”, Journal of Industrial and Production Engineering, Vol. 33, No. 8, pp. 558-567, 2016 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/21681015.2016.1172522

W. J. Cosgrove, “Entropy as a measure of uncertainty for PERT network completion time distributions and critical path probabilities”, California Journal of Operations Management, Vol. 8, No. 2, pp. 20-26, 2010

Е. А. Кузьмин, “Организационно-Экономические Системы В Условиях Неопределенности И Определенности: Оценка Значений Энтропии И Негэнтропии”, Управленец, Vol. 11-12, No. 40, pp. 44-54, 2012

Y. A. Kuzmin, “Organisational and economic systems under uncertainty and certainty: entropy and negentropy evaluation”, Upravlenets, Vol. 11-12, No. 40, pp. 44-54, 2012 (in russian)

. Н. Красников, “Неопределённость, энтропия и проектные риски", Радіоелектронні і комп’ютерні системи, Vol. 4, No. 31, pp. 87-91, 2008

V. N. Krasnikov, “Uncertainty, entropy and project risks”, Radio-electronic and Computer Systems, Vol. 4, No. 31, pp. 87-91, 2008 (in russian)

В. Н. Красников, Е.В. Соколова, И.Б. Туркин, “Управления рисками сложных проектов авиационно-космической отрасли", Авиационно-космическая техника и технология, Vol. 3, No. 90, pp. 113-116, 2012

V. N. Krasnikov, E. V. Sokolova, I. B. Turkin, “Risk management of complex projects aerospace industry”, Aerospace Engineering and Technology, Vol. 3, No. 90, pp. 113-116, 2012 (in russian)

R. Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, S. Mousavi, H. Hashemi, “A fuzzy comprehensive approach for risk identification and prioritization simultaneously in EPC projects”, in: Risk Management in Environment, Production and Economy, InTech, 2011 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5772/16247

V. Gogunsky, Y. S. Chernega, E. Rudenko, “Markov model of risk in the life safety projects”, Odes’kyi Politechnichnyi Universytet. Pratsi, Vol. 41, No. 2, pp. 271-276, 2013

C. E. Shannon, “A Mathematical Theory of Communication”, Bell System Technical Journal, Vol. 27, pp. 379-423, 1948 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/j.1538-7305.1948.tb01338.x

A. Chenarani, E. A. Drughinin, D. N. Kritskiy, “Simulating the impact of activity uncertainties and risk combinations in R&D projects”, unpublished, 2017 DOI: https://doi.org/10.25103/jestr.104.01


How to Cite

A. Chenarani and E. A. Druzhinin, “A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects”, Eng. Technol. Appl. Sci. Res., vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 2083–2088, Oct. 2017.


Abstract Views: 736
PDF Downloads: 527

Metrics Information
Bookmark and Share